Whitespace: The future starts here - DIY trend forecasting

Issue 66: October 2010

When it comes to thinking about the future you could say there are three types of manager.

Some can be described as intuitive trendspotters, others rely more on the advice of market researchers or specialist consultants, and there are also quite a few who ignore the future in favour of the here and now.

Experience tells us the last group is doomed in failure from a strategic perspective. But in terms of the other two types of manager, is it better to be your own trendspotter or rely to on the expertise of others?

The answer is it pays to do both. When preempting future opportunities and threats it's important to have as much insight as possible with an approach that covers both the expertise professional trendspotters and your own scanning.

To achieve this balance, this month's Whitespace offers five steps that suggest trendspotting isn't a gift possessed by a fortunate few, but rather a process that every professional can, and should, be following.

Defining the trend
A logical place to start any discussion of trendspotting is to define the term itself.

According to Trendwatching's blog, the concept refers to "a novel manifestation of something that has unlocked or serviced an existing (and hardly ever changing) consumer need, desire, want, or value".

In effect, a trend is a new way of solving an existing problem; it's a solution that's larger than a singular new product or service and idea capable of evoking considerable change on the consumer landscape.

However in a word of warning, Trendwatching warns professionals to be wary of confusing trends with fads – for example the notion that ‘pigs are the new cats' or the popularity of pizza cones, both of which may not be indicative of widespread changes to consumer behaviour.

Step one: Look for mini-trends
To achieve significant change, trends owe their power to a series of smaller developments in consumer behaviour. These can be described as mini-trends.

According to innovation author John Vanston mini-trends are ideas that are just beginning to emerge which have not yet been recognised by the media or market place but have the potential to become important.

Two mini-trends identified by The Futurist include increased interest in privacy and the redefinition of retirement. Both are now starting to be discussed and are set to grow into larger trends that will shape consumer behaviour in a plethora of industry-specific ways.

Step two: Simplify the scanning process
A commitment to scanning is fundamental to the trend forecasting process. The trouble with this imperative is that being across a never-ending array of information sources requires something many managers lack: time.

A means of streamlining the process is to get serious about the web's syndication tools. One of the most widely used syndication tools is use Google Reader, which brings together updates of blogs and other online publications you want to keep and eye on.

Another approach is to develop a personalised trend ‘magazine' with tools like the beautiful-looking Flipboard app for iPad, a tool that aggregates interest areas from a number a publications into personalised magazine interface.

Step three: Building a trend scanning culture
Highly effective trendspotters rarely work in isolation. In fact, siloing the process may isolate you from a host of potential scanners already at your organisation.

One way to avoid this issue and to fast track a trend scanning culture is to crowdsource the trend forecasting processes. The online magazine Trendhunter has made a name for itself doing this, so too can your organisation by seeking ideas from clients and consumers.

This crowdsourcing process can also be performed internally with an organisation-based forum or intranet where staff can post trends or ideas, a mechanism with the potential to boost morale by offering recognition for staff who submit the ‘trend of the week'.

Step four: Trends are all about people
Trends aren't just figures on spreadsheets. They are about behaviours, even if those actions are sometimes irrational, and the only way to recognise behaviours is to observe both your consumers and those belonging to other organisations.

It's also vital to watch other industries, as often guidance on trends can be witnessed by observing those sectors with a reputation for past-passed innovation such as fashion, technology, marketing and design, as Simone Haruko Smith agues in this blog post.

And as the information age rolls on, it's important to remember that people, not technology alone, drive change. Today's social media revolution wasn't so much caused by new technology – networked bulletin boards have been around for over 30 years – but the willingness of the general public to embrace online communication.

Step five – It's not all about you
One of the key aspects of trend forecasting is having the right mindset, according to Trendwatching. Achieving this requires an innate curiosity about people and an open-minded approach to concepts that may at first seem unsustainable or even ridiculous.

Another gift is the understanding that it's not all about you. Your preferences, your background, your ideas are often different from those of a client or consumer. So it's worth developing a profile of your ideal consumer and keeping it handy.

Having a consumer dossier will make trend forecasting both a conscious and subconscious process. And because the best observations usually take place outside the office, always have a notepad – electronic or paper-based – handy to write down your ideas.

Anyone can play
In the past, forward-looking corporations would stay on top of emerging trends by employing the services of forecasting gurus or marketing mavens. But the Internet has come along and changed this situation – effective trend forecasting is now a pursuit within the reach of every manager.

As the Brain Reserve's Faith Popcorn notes, amateurs are often the best trendspotters because they aren't constrained by the rigid structure or false wisdom of trained forecasters, they see the obvious more easily than experts.

If you're keen to test this theory, the future starts now.

Five trend forecasting and inspirational websites:

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